Global Thinker

Climate Change is a global human rights issue

2007-04-06T09:26:00.000-07:00

BBC World News, Good Friday, 2007

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6532323.stm

Billions face climate change risk

The impact of climate change has been a major source of disputeBillions of people face shortages of food and water and increased risk of flooding, experts at a major climate change conference have warned.
The bleak conclusion came ahead of the publication of a key report by hundreds of international environmental experts.
Agreement on the final wording of the report was reached after a marathon debate through the night in Brussels.
People living in poverty would be worst affected by the effects of climate change, the gathered experts said.
"It's the poorest of the poor in the world, and this includes poor people even in prosperous societies, who are going to be the worst hit," said Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Mr Pachauri said those people were also the least equipped to deal with the effects of such changes.

A birth day returns and the dance beckons

2007-03-01T16:29:00.000-08:00

THE DANCE OF SOULS

The search for identity is a search for one’s part in the “dance of creation”. For the human species, nature and god has choreographed the most bewildering of all dances in creation. It is not one dance, but three that we must all perform, and as the ultimate challenge, we must perform them simultaneously.

The first dance is the dance of the senses. In this dance we are held enthralled by the hedonistic rhythms of sense and sensuality. Their siren calls lure us to the endless search for satisfaction. Yet we remain unsatisfied. Why?

It is because even in the writhing of the first dance, we hear the strains of the symphony of the second., the dance of mind, that needs meaning, without which the heart first strains, and eventually bursts. The dance of mind knits together with the dance of pleasure and pain to seek meaning in the choreographed consciousness we call life. Yet the emptiness persists. Why?

It is because the strains of the symphony of the second dance, descend, in time, into an adagio for mortality. We try to seek peace before the music stops, the curtain falls and the dancing ends. But where?

There is the third dance that we may never perform, wherein we may find that peace. It is the dance of souls. It is beyond explanation, beyond words. It is a dance to the universal, the steps of the finite following the infinite. In this dance, ambition, power and riches are meaningless. In this dance, we are links, nothing but links. This is our ultimate meaning in the dance of creation.

Putting Corruption on the Trade Agenda

2007-02-17T07:50:00.000-08:00

IS IT TIME TO PUT CORRUPTION ON THE GLOBAL TRADE AND INVESTMENT AGENDA?

A columnist for the respected Washington Post made the following controversial statements following successful U.S. Congressional attempts to foil the Chinese takeover of a major American energy company Unocal:

China wants to control supplies of oil and other commodities because it's scared of price shocks; owning oil or other mineral reserves provides anti-shock insurance. As Chinese economists argue, their economy is extremely vulnerable to external shocks because it's extremely open. The Unocal defeat is not going to stanch China's drive to buy foreign resources. China has two ways to do that. It can buy Western resource companies: That was the Unocal strategy. Or it can do deals in resource-rich developing countries, which tend to be plagued with corruption, human rights abuses and other unsavory practices. To cite just two of many examples, China has invested in Sudan and Zimbabwe, propping up both countries' unspeakable dictatorships. (Sebastian MallabyMonday, August 8, 2005; Page A15)

There are growing concerns that China and possibly other Asian rapidly developing countries may be winning the bidding wars for such foreign resources through corruption, just as some major corporations from Europe and America have done for so long before. These concerns inevitably focus on countries such as Angola, Equatorial Guinea, Nigeria and Sudan which rank towards the bottom of the Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index. At stake is not only the huge cost to sustainable development and human rights in the targeted countries, but also the entire global investment and trading system. How long will it be before there is political retaliation in the form of disguised trade and investment protectionism?

Free markets may be the fire that can stoke trade and investment around, but often overlooked is the "oxygen" that is needed to keep that fire burning. That oxygen is the environment that enables sustainable business through the rule of law, accountability of the public sector and social stability. Without this oxygen, the fire will eventually diminish or even go out completely. Ethical corporations that do business in countries that lack these essentials of a sustainable business environment have a vital role to play. However, governments and International financial, trade and investment institutions also can promote ethical and therefore sustainable business environments around the world.

First, in member nations of the Organization of American States, the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development and now for countries which have ratified the 2003 UN Convention Against Corruption, there are international legal obligations imposed on countries to implement anti-bribery and anti-corruption treaties. Legal systems and bureaucracies in many of the countries of the world will keep on being rifle with corruption unless their governments shake up the systems and start imposing criminal penalties, including long prison sentences, that far exceed the gains possible from corrupt activities. If this is not done, the efforts of ethical leadership companies will dissipate in a business environment that distorts the fundamental objectives and spirit of free markets and free-trade agreements. It may be time to insert these legal obligations of countries to abstain from corruption into global trading rules and attach trading remedies for those who violate these obligations.

Another possible idea to combat the increase in global corruption is to promote co-operation in establishing national integrity plans for each member country of free-trade zones. This could include assistance in justice system reforms and promotion of the rule of law. Likewise, international financial institutions and national export credit and insurance organization, such as Export Development Corp. (EDC) in Canada, can crack down heavily on clients, contractors and executing agencies that become involved in corrupt business practices. This could entail excluding such entities from all future dealings with these vital financing and insurance sources. Convictions for such activities could also be publicized to magnify the deterrent effect. If such a regime is adopted in Canada, Europe or the United States, it should also be promoted throughout the world. These international financial institutions and national export credit and insurance agencies should also encourage and perhaps even insist that corporations that want their services should establish effective codes of conduct that militate against corrupt practices. Canada can show leadership in the Americas by beginning this practice with the EDC. Likewise, the assistance that the Canadian International Development Agency gives to the private sector for commercial projects in developing countries could also be utilized as a lever for promoting effective codes of conduct.

Finally, there can be no sustainable business environment without social stability, as several countries in the Americas are demonstrating. It is imperative that governments see the necessity of working with society and the private sector to explore the links between social stability and respect for human rights, labour standards and the fair sharing of benefits that come from free markets and free trade.

Links - The Earth's Secret

2007-02-04T14:31:00.000-08:00

Links

The earth is in flux,

thesis and antithesis joist

in never ending duel,

forming, transforming,

wave after wave,

crashing upon the shores

of Man's brief conciousness.

In this world of flux,

where evil lurks behind

those who kill in the name of god,

where joy is the temporary suspension

of perpetual transience,

what is the duty of the soul

that sees beyond the

emptiness of ritual dogma,

of the pleasures of flesh,

of power and ambition,

all of which mould into

the furrows of history's clay?

The answer lies in the waves,

the turn of the seasons,

the dance of predator and prey

the bloody circles of war,

the paradoxes of peace,

the progress of man,

the glow of galaxies,

the deadness of space,

the birth of matter,

the cry of a newborn:

Links... we are nothing but

Links.

Global Warming to last for 1,000 years

2007-02-02T12:51:00.000-08:00

Climate change: In graphics BBC Website Report (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6322083.stm :

It is "very likely" that human activity is the cause for climate change, scientists from over 130 countries have concluded. The graphics above illustrate their predictions on just how much global temperatures may rise over the next century.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that temperatures are most likely to rise by 1.8C-4C by 2100. But the possible range is much greater; 1.1C-6.4C. The maps above show how a range of three different scenarios will affect different parts of the planet.
The emissions scenarios, A1B, A2, B1, used to create the maps above, are based on a range of detailed economic and technological data. These versions of the future consider different population increases, fossil and alternative fuel use, and consequent CO2 increases.

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Over a century and a half ago, Chief Seattle, (yes, after whom the City in which Microsoft and Bill Gates lives is named) one of the greatest North American aboriginal leaders, who was a Chief of the Squamish nation tried to pass on the millenia of wisdom of his people when he told the white settlers:

"Teach your children what we have taught ours, that the earth is our mother. Whatever befalls the earth befalls the sons of the earth. The earth does not belong to man; man belongs to the earth. Man did not weave the web of life; he is merely a strand in it. We do not inherit the earth from our ancestors; we borrow it from our children."

Have we despoilt the inheritance of all future generations? Is the punishment the potential endangerment of the species of home sapiens?

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Global warming to last for 1,000 years: report

CTV.ca News Staff

Humans have already left such a deep footprint on the environment that the effects of global warming will last for the next 1,000 years, according to a draft copy of a new report.
The Globe and Mail obtained an early version of the climate change study being prepared by the world's leading scientists, and reported that little doubt remains that the planet is getting hotter.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change will release the report on Friday at a news conference in Paris, while a simultaneous conference will be held in Ottawa.
The report says heat waves, droughts and rain storms, as well as violent typhoons and hurricanes, will become more frequent.
The report paints a startling picture of the effects of climate change and says evidence of the phenomenon is now "unequivocal."
It says human influence on the atmosphere during the 21st century alone will propel global warming for another 1,000 years, based on estimates of how long it will take nature to clean the air of gases that contribute to climate change.
Among the other findings, the report states that the last half-century was probably the hottest in at least the past 1,300 years. And in 11 of the past 12 years, temperatures were among the highest since the 1850s, when accurate temperature measurements were first set down.
"Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, melting of snow and ice, and rising sea level," says the draft. The document is being reviewed in Paris.
It is the fourth report to be issued by the group of 2,000 global experts organized by the UN, including many from Canada.
The first report was issued in 1990. Since then, the panel's stance on global warming -- and the notion that it is being brought on in large part by deforestation, large scale agriculture and burning of fossil fuels -- has become more established.
The IPPC's first report suggested global warming might be under way. In 1995, the second report said it was likely that global warming was happening. In 2001, the third report suggested scientists were pretty sure human behaviour was impacting the climate.
But the tone of the newest report suggests there's nothing left to argue and climate change is now a stark reality.
Evidence of the phenomenon is being seen almost everywhere on the planet, from mountain tops, where glaciers are shrinking, to the bottom of the oceans, where average water temperatures are increasing as far as 3,000 metres below the surface.
The strong tone of the IPCC report should eliminate any lingering doubts that global warming is really happening, say some environmentalists who are calling on politicians to take more drastic action to limit greenhouse gas emissions.
"There is no more reason to delay," John Bennett, spokesman for the Climate Action Network Canada told The Globe. "We need the policies, regulations, and programs to reduce emissions and we need to do it with the same kind of urgency that we would use to fight a war."
The draft predicts the following developments will occur as the ongoing results of global warming:
Arctic and Antarctic sea ice will continue to shrink and late summer sea ice in the Arctic could disappear almost entirely by the latter part of the 21st century;
Droughts, along with heat waves and storms involving heavy precipitation will continue to become more common;
There will be fewer hurricanes, but the ones that do develop will be more powerful;
The planet's temperatures in 2090-99 are likely to be 1.7 degrees to 4 degrees warmer than the period from 1980-1999;
According to current predictions, global warming of 1.9 to 4.6 degrees would lead to a near-complete elimination of the Greenland ice sheet and a rise in sea levels of about 7 metres, if sustained for millennia.

59th Anniversary of the death of Mahatma Gandhi

2007-01-30T19:13:00.000-08:00

"An eye for an eye makes us all blind" Mahatma Gandhi.

If only those who perpetuate the circle of violence in the Middle East, Sri Lanka and the other troubled spots of this world would take heed.

The words of another great man cut down before his time may be some comfort for those who suffer from the tragic disregard of this wisdom of Gandhi: "A man may die, nations may rise and fall, but an idea lives on" John F. Kennedy.

January 30, 2007, the 59th Anniversary of the death of the great preacher of non violence.

Vietnam warns on Iraq

2007-01-14T08:57:00.000-08:00

Vietnam warns on Iraq

Black Marble Wall,
wells up from neat green shroud,
imperceptibly at first,
almost catching pilgrims by surprise,
then banks steeply,
damning fifty thousand souls.

Black marble wall,
cries up fifty thousand names,
attracts at first the unseen weepers,
laying down flags and flowers
and moving scrawled letters
at the foot of the headstone.

Black marble wall,
attracts promenading pilgrims
silently paying homage;
now and then a parent, a sibling
stops and points to spot on wall;
tears well up from silent memories.

Black silent wall,
stands counterpoint
to massive white monuments
of this imperial city,
built on sense of power and might.
Black marble wall warns silently:
Supreme power needs supreme wisdom.

Washington, D.C., Vietnam War Memorial,
November 11, 1986

The Crimes and Punishment of Saddam Hussein; Was Justice Served?

2007-01-06T14:36:00.000-08:00

Ottawa Citizen Special
Wednesday, January 03, 2007

There are few people who would deny that Saddam Hussein was a monster. The evidence was his many acts of mass murder, crimes against humanity and genocide.
Yet, as someone who has immersed himself in the global struggle for and study of international human rights and humanitarian law, I was deeply troubled and conflicted by the trial and speedy execution of the former Butcher of Baghdad.
The question for those who deeply care about the future not only of Iraq, but the development of international humanitarian and human rights law, is this: Was justice served for all communities that were victims of his brutal regime, and did it serve the cause of truth and reconciliation in this troubled land that was once the cradle of human civilization?
Saddam Hussein was tried and convicted, and executed last week, for a revenge attack against the entire population of a small Shiite village, Dujail, where local residents mounted an assassination attempt on Saddam's motorcade in 1982. In the days that followed, hundreds of villagers were detained and severely tortured.
Of the detainees, about 100 men were referred to the Revolutionary Court and given death sentences by the chief justice of the court (who apparently has shared the same fate as Saddam) and executed. About 48 others who had been sentenced had already died under torture.
The Supreme Iraqi Criminal Tribunal tried eight other defendants along with Saddam in the Dujail trial. The leading international human rights organizations in the world, such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, have severely criticized the trial process as failing to satisfy international fair-trial standards. There was increasing evidence that political interference undermined the impartiality and independence of the tribunal.
The first presiding judge resigned and the appointment of another one was blocked by the government. Three defence lawyers were assassinated during the trial, and Saddam was denied access to his legal counsel during the first year after his arrest. For those who did survive, their complaints about the process were mostly dismissed by the tribunal.
Even more questionable was the appeal process. The appeals chamber announced its confirmation of the sentences on Dec. 26, just three weeks after the written opinion was handed down by the trial chamber. It ordered that the executions had to be carried out within 30 days of ratification by the president of Iraq or his delegate. The appeals chamber had given the defence 11 days to study the written opinion of the trial chamber. The government decided to execute Saddam just days after the confirmation of the sentences and minutes before the start of Eid al-Adha, one of the most important days in the Islamic calendar.
A fundamental test of a society and its commitment to democratic order and human rights is how it treats its worst offenders even if they are monsters in the eyes of most citizens. This is especially true for Iraq, which is a society daily tortured by sectarian hatred, violence and mass killings.
Some European countries, the Vatican and leading human rights organizations have also voiced their opposition to the death penalty -- even for monsters such as Saddam -- because it violates the right to life, and constitutes cruel, inhuman and degrading punishment, especially if it comes after an unfair trial. The Canadian government seems to have remained silent.
One could also argue that perhaps the most convincing argument against the death penalty should be found in societies like Iraq where life has been so cheapened. It is fatal for a government desperately clinging to its democratic legitimacy to cheapen it further with hasty executions that could help stir sectarian bloodlust. The situation was drastically worsened by the taunting of the dictator by his executioners moments before his hanging.
If this is not bad enough, the trial, conviction and execution may even have hindered what slim chances there are of truth and reconciliation among Iraq's warring factions.
At the time of his execution, Saddam and some of his most cruel henchmen were also to stand trial before the same tribunal, together with six others, on the most serious international crime of genocide arising from what was called the Anfal campaign in 1988 against the Kurdish minority.
In this campaign of horrors, it is alleged that more than 180,000 Kurds were massacred and others were subject to torture, killings, mass deportations and other gross human rights abuses.
While it is expected that this trial will continue against the other accused, the execution of the person charged with command responsibility for this most serious of international crimes is a setback for the cause of truth and reconciliation not only for the Kurdish minority, but also for Sunni and Shiite communities. It denies them the opportunity to fully understand the extent of evil that can flow from power unrestrained by law and human rights.
There is now a growing fear that instead of the hope that the trial of one of modern history's worst dictators being a beacon for the promotion of international criminal justice, it may instead have put the future of Iraq's justice system in doubt and worse become a catalyst for more sectarian violence.

© The Ottawa Citizen 2007

New Year's Day, 2007; The Environment and Global Solidarity, Survival and Legacy

2007-01-01T07:59:00.000-08:00

Will the Environment make humanity realize its common bonds of solidarity, survival and legacy?

The Earth and the Environment should teach all humanity that we share a common destiny. There are profound issues of common interest and solidarity that are revealed with the Northern Icecap starting to disappear (see below, a New Year's warning from Mother Earth), the creeping desertification in Sub-Saharan Africa that is causing massive droughts, famine and even wars, the hurricanes and typhoons in America and Asia, the rise of sea levels that threaten entire nations in the Indian and Pacific Oceans, the eventual disappearance of the lungs of the Earth, the Amazon, before the end of the Century (see report below), and yes, even the distraught of skiers in the Swiss and Austrian Alps as the snow disappears forever.

Our planet is a very small boat and it is starting to take on water. All in the boat need to realize that we need to help one another and ourselves to survive. But what will it take for that to happen? And will it occur before it is too late?

Huge Arctic ice break discovered (BBC NEWS, December 29, 2006)

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/bigphotos/9461787.html

Ellesmere island is about 800km (500 miles) from the North PoleScientists have discovered that an enormous ice shelf broke off an island in the Canadian Arctic last year, in what could be sign of global warming.
It is said to be the largest break in 25 years, casting an ice floe with an area of 66 sq km (25 square miles).
It occurred in August 2005 but was only recently detected on satellite images.
The chunk of ice bigger than Manhattan could wreak havoc if it moves into oil drilling regions and shipping lanes next summer, scientists warned.
For something that large to move that quickly is quite amazing

"The Arctic is all frozen up for the winter and it's stuck in the sea ice about 50km (30 miles) off the coast," said Luke Copland, an assistant professor at the University of Ottawa.
"The risk is that next summer, as that sea ice melts, this large ice island can then move itself around off the coast and one potential path for it is to make its way westward toward the Beaufort Sea where there is lots of oil and gas exploration, oil rigs and shipping."
'Quite amazing'
The ice break was initially undetected due to the remoteness of the northern coast of Ellesmere island, which is about 800km (500 miles) from the North Pole.

Satellite images showed the 15km (9mile) crack, then the ice floating about 1km (0.6 miles) from the coast within about an hour, said Mr Copland, a specialist in glaciers and ice masses.
"You could stand at one edge and not see the other side, and for something that large to move that quickly is quite amazing," he said.
Mr Copland said a combination of low accumulations of sea ice around the edges of the ice mass, as well as the Arctic's warmest temperatures on record, contributed to the break.
The region was 3C (5.4F) above average in the summer of 2005, he said.
Ice shelves in Canada's far north have shrunk by as much as 90% since 1906.
"It's hard to tie one event to climate change, but when you look at the longer-term trend, the bigger picture, we've lost a lot of ice shelves on northern Ellesmere in the past century.
"This is that continuing and this is the biggest one in the last 25 years," he said.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/pop_ups/06/sci_nat_enl_1158233870/html/1.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/spl/hi/pop_ups/06/sci_nat_enl_1165954155/html/1.stm

Global Warming may change Amazon into grassy savanna before end of the century:

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20061230/amazon_warming_061230/20061230?hub=SciTech

Christmas, 2006: Is Peace on Earth Possible?

2006-12-25T15:14:00.000-08:00

There is some good news in this season of goodwill, but there are still reasons for global concern:

The following is a news release from one of the leading think tanks in the world on global peace and security. The data from its Human Security Brief, 2006, indicates that while international conflicts may be on the decline, there is another evil on the rise. The purveyors of hate who thrive on political violence and are willing to engage in mass murder and even genocide may be on the increase. It is the duty of all civilized nations, peoples and individuals to combat these individuals who retard the progress of humanity towards a more peaceful world. In this and all seasons of goodwill, all of us have a role to play in this global challenge.

News Release, Human Security Centre, UBC,Vancouver 21 December 2006.

Notwithstanding the escalating violence in Iraq and the widening war in Darfur, the Human Security Brief 2006 (www.humansecuritybrief.info), a new report from the Human Security Centre at the University of British Columbia, reveals that, from the beginning of 2002 to the end of 2005, the number of wars being fought around the world dropped significantly. By far the greatest decline was in sub–Saharan Africa.
The post–Cold War decline in armed conflicts reported in last year’s Human Security Report 2005 (www.humansecurityreport.info) has continued, says the new study. The 2005 Report argued that the decline could be attributed in large part to an upsurge in international activism, spearheaded by the UN, that sought to stop ongoing wars, help negotiate peace settlements, support post–conflict reconstruction, and prevent old wars from starting again.
The findings presented in the Brief suggest that these efforts are continuing to have an impact.
“Governments and international agencies are increasingly demanding that security policies be ‘evidence–based’”, notes Human Security Centre Director, Andrew Mack. “The Brief and projects like it, help provide the data and analysis needed to bring this aspiration closer to reality.”

Key Findings

􀂃 Notwithstanding the escalating violence in Iraq and the widening war in Darfur, the new data indicate that from the beginning of 2002 to the end of 2005, the number of armed conflicts being waged around the world shrank 15%––from 66 to 56. By far the greatest decline was in Sub–Saharan Africa.
􀂃 Estimated battle-death tolls declined worldwide by almost 40% over the same period. Battle–death statistics are prone to considerable error, however, so these findings should be treated with appropriate caution.
􀂃 The steep post–Cold War decline in campaigns of genocide and other mass slaughters of civilians has continued. In 2005,
there was just one ongoing genocide––in Darfur. In 1989, there were 10.
􀂃 Growing numbers of wars are ending in negotiated settlements instead of being fought to the bitter end––a trend that reflects the increased commitment of the international community to peacemaking.
􀂃 The estimated number of displaced people around the world––refugees and internally displaced persons––fell from 34.2 to 32.1 million between 2003 and 2005, a net decline of 6%.
􀂃 The number of military coups and attempted coups fell from 10 in 2004 to just 3 in 2005, continuing an uneven decline from the 1963 high point of 25.
But other trends were far from positive:
􀂃 In four regions of the world the number of armed conflicts increased between 2002 and 2005.
􀂃 International terrorist incidents increased threefold worldwide between 2000 and 2005, with an even greater increase in fatalities.
􀂃 The number of campaigns of organized violence waged against civilians each year increased by 56% between 1989 and 2005.
􀂃 The fact that more wars now end in negotiated settlements than in victories is encouraging news for peacemakers. But wars that end through negotiation have a downside. They last three times longer than those that end in victories and are nearly twice as likely to re-start within five years.
What the Findings Mean
In addition to updating the armed conflict trend data from last year’s Human Security Report, the Brief analyzes changing trends in organized violence against civilians and changing patterns of war termination.
Deadly Assaults on Civilians
It is widely believed––in the media, in NGOs, governments and international agencies––that the perpetrators of political violence around the world are targeting––and killing––civilians in even greater numbers.

Some of the statistics cited in the Brief––that there has been a 56% increase in the number of campaigns of organized violence against civilians since 1989, for example––appear to support this belief.
But the data, which the Human Security Centre commissioned from Uppsala University’s Conflict Data Program, also show that there has been a clear, albeit uneven, decline in the fatalities associated with these campaigns since the mid–1990s. Some campaigns had very low death tolls.
“The number of campaigns has gone up, but the number killed has gone down,” says Andrew Mack. “The latter fact challenges the pervasive belief that organized violence against civilians has been increasing.”
However, concerns about the reliability of some of the statistics, particularly in Iraq and Darfur, mean definitive judgments about civilian fatality trends in the post–Cold War years are not yet possible.
Genocides
A second source of information on changing trends in violence against civilians is found in the scholarly research on genocides and other campaigns of mass political violence that are directed primarily against civilians.
A study by Barbara Harff of the US Naval Academy found that genocides and other campaigns of mass violence against civilians dropped by 90% between 1989 and 2005, after rising for almost three decades. This pattern closely follows the trend in high–intensity armed conflicts over the same period––which is not surprising since most intentional mass killings of civilians take place in the context of major wars.
“The 90% decline in these campaigns of mass violence since the end of the Cold War is also at odds with the conventional wisdom,” says Mack.
International Terrorism
Statistics on the incidence of international terrorism provide a third measure of organised violence against civilians.
Here the data follow a trend similar to that of genocides and high intensity armed conflicts––namely a steep but uneven increase in terrorist attacks throughout the Cold War years, followed by a steep decline.
But while both armed conflicts and genocides continued to decline in the new millennium, the number of international terrorist incidents shot up almost threefold from 2000 to 2005––with an even greater increase in fatalities, according to the US–based Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism Page 3 of 5
The terrorism data do suggest that civilians are increasingly being targeted by the perpetrators of political violence––although for most of the period under review (1968–2005) the number of civilians killed by international terrorists has only been a small fraction of the civilian death toll from other forms of political violence.
In terms of civilian lives saved, however, by far the most important changes in the past 50 years have been the steep decline in genocides and other campaigns of mass violence against civilians since the end of the Cold War, and the equally steep decline in high–intensity armed conflicts. The latter trend is important because large numbers of civilians were intentionally killed by governments or rebel groups in many of the major conflicts of the Cold War years.
“None of this minimizes the appalling toll of civilian deaths in Iraq, Darfur and elsewhere,” Mack points out. “But if we can better understand what stopped the slaughter of civilians in the past, we may do better at saving innocent lives in the future.”
How Wars End
There has been a radical shift in the number of wars starting and ending since the Cold War––and an equally important shift in the ways in which conflicts end.
A new study on conflict terminations produced by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program and funded in part by the Human Security Centre, reveals that from the 1940s to the end of the Cold War, more wars ended in military victory than in negotiated settlements.
In the 1990s there was a major change. More wars were now ending in peace talks than on the battlefield. This trend has continued into the new millennium.
The big increase in negotiated settlements provided evidence that the UN’s rapidly expanded peacemaking activities in this period were having an impact. But wars that end in negotiated settlements have a downside. They last three times longer on average than conflicts that end in victory, and are nearly twice as likely to start up again within five years.
This is a sobering finding, but the record of the past six years suggests––no more than this––that negotiated settlements may be becoming less prone to breakdown.
Looking Forward
The Human Security Report 2005 noted that the demise of colonialism and the end of the Cold War had removed two major sources of conflict from the international system. It also argued that the international community’s efforts to stop conflicts and prevent them from starting Page 4 of 5
again, though plagued by many failures, had helped drive the steady decline in armed conflicts that began in the aftermath of the Cold War and has continued ever since.
There can, of course, be no guarantees that this decline will continue––and there are many reasons why it may not.
“But in a world that spends a trillion dollars a year on defence,” says Andrew Mack, “a modest shift of resources from the military to support conflict prevention, peacemaking and peacebuilding policies, could help stop today’s potential threats from becoming tomorrow’s violent realities.”